Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 49.95%. A win for Gomel had a probability of 25.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Gomel win was 0-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.
