Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gomel win with a probability of 54.9%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Dnepr Mogilev had a probability of 21.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gomel win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Dnepr Mogilev win it was 0-1 (6.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gomel would win this match.
