Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 44.68%. A win for Torpedo-BelAZ had a probability of 30.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Torpedo-BelAZ win was 0-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.
