Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 29.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Torpedo-BelAZ in this match.
