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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 48.78%. A win for Smorgon had a probability of 26.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.51%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Smorgon win was 1-0 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Smorgon | Draw | BATE Borisov |
26.95% ( -0.32) | 24.26% ( -0.42) | 48.78% ( 0.74) |
| Both teams to score 55.97% ( 1.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.91% ( 1.61) | 46.09% ( -1.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.61% ( 1.5) | 68.39% ( -1.49) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.07% ( 0.6) | 30.92% ( -0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.78% ( 0.69) | 67.22% ( -0.69) |
| BATE Borisov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.03% ( 0.94) | 18.97% ( -0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.5% ( 1.53) | 50.5% ( -1.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Smorgon | Draw | BATE Borisov |
| 1-0 @ 6.88% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.18% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.92% Total : 26.95% | 1-1 @ 11.44% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.41)2-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.26% | 0-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 9.51% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 8.11% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 5.27% ( 0.19)0-3 @ 4.49% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 3.09% ( 0.16)1-4 @ 2.19% ( 0.14)0-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 1.29% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.21% Total : 48.78% |
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