Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mechelen win with a probability of 49.26%. A win for Charleroi had a probability of 28.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mechelen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.4%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Charleroi win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
