Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mechelen win with a probability of 53.3%. A win for Charleroi had a probability of 24.4% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mechelen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Charleroi win was 1-2 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mechelen would win this match.
