Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 56.47%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Avai had a probability of 18.93%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for an Avai win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
0.89) 
-0.33) 
