Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Avai win with a probability of 37.07%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Avai win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.34%) and 2-1 (7.22%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (12.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Avai in this match.
