Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 50.94%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.16%) and 1-2 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 1-0 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
