Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Avai win with a probability of 47.58%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 25.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an Avai win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.48%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.69%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Avai would win this match.
