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Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 18, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
AM

Fluminense
1 - 0
Atletico Mineiro

Lima (87')
Lima (80'), Thiago (90'), Marcelo (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Franco (78'), Palacios (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Juventude 2-1 Fluminense
Sunday, September 15 at 8pm in Brasileiro

We said: Fluminense 2-1 Atletico Mineiro

While Fluminense have been some way from their best this season, they have managed to pull off results in this competition when it mattered. They also beat this opponent less than a month ago and are unbeaten in their last seven games at home. Thus, we feel O Flu will edge the result in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Fluminense.

Result
FluminenseDrawAtletico Mineiro
41.01% (0.017000000000003 0.02) 27.95% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 31.04% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 47.07% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.24% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)58.76% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.72% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)79.28% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Fluminense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.85% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)28.15% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.17% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)63.84% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Atletico Mineiro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.51% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)34.5% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.79% (-0.029 -0.03)71.21% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Fluminense 41.01%
    Atletico Mineiro 31.04%
    Draw 27.95%
FluminenseDrawAtletico Mineiro
1-0 @ 12.31% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.3%
2-0 @ 7.8% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.51% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 3.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 1.87% (-0.002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.11%
4-0 @ 1.05% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 41.01%
1-1 @ 13.1%
0-0 @ 9.71% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 27.95%
0-1 @ 10.33%
1-2 @ 6.97% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 5.5% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
1-3 @ 2.47% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.57% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 31.04%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Juventude 2-1 Fluminense
Sunday, September 15 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fluminense 2-0 Sao Paulo
Sunday, September 1 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 0-2 Fluminense
Sunday, August 25 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Fluminense 2-1 Gremio (4-2 pen.)
Tuesday, August 20 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Fluminense 0-0 Corinthians
Sunday, August 18 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Gremio 2-1 Fluminense
Tuesday, August 13 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Bahia 3-0 Atletico Mineiro
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 0-0 Sao Paulo
Friday, September 13 at 1.45am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Gremio 2-3 Atletico Mineiro
Sunday, September 1 at 3pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-1 Atletico Mineiro
Thursday, August 29 at 1.30am in Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 0-2 Fluminense
Sunday, August 25 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 1-0 San Lorenzo
Wednesday, August 21 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores


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