Mineiro have been sharp at home throughout this competition, while Flu have not shown the kind of potency we are used to seeing as the visitors, and in the end, we believe the goalkeeping of Galo will be massive and enable them to reverse this tie.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 49.27%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 24.12%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (8.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
0.15) 
-0.03) 
