Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 36.82%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 1-0 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
-1.43) 
0.33) 
