Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 16.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.54%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
