Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 75.44%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 8.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.68%) and 3-0 (10.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
0.19) 
-0.13) 
