America have shown plenty of resilience and quality at home in this year's competition, but they might find it harder to penetrate a defensive unit who have been a little more consistent throughout the campaign than Bragantino.
Fortaleza have put together their share of positive results on the road this season, and we expect they will be in another scrappy affair this week, which might make it harder for them to create chances in transition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 43.13%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (9.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
0.14) 
-0.06) 
