Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 57.63%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 17.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.88%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (6.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
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