Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 64.34%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Avai had a probability of 14.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.86%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.15%), while for an Avai win it was 0-1 (5.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
-0.14) 
0.08) 
