Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 42.58%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 30.04% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (9.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
0.34) 
-0.44) 
