Although their manager was sacked following the weekend's defeat, we think that an Atletico Goianiense side who have won all of their home games in the Copa Sudamericana this season will edge out Sao Paulo to take a narrow lead into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Goianiense win with a probability of 43.53%. A draw had a probability of 33.1% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 23.41%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Goianiense win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (6.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (18.01%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Goianiense would win this match.

Result
Atletico Goianiense	Draw	Sao Paulo
43.53% ( 0.01)	33.05% ( 0)	23.41% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 31.71% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

24.64% (

-0.01)

75.36% (

0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

9.52% (

-0)

90.47% (

Atletico Goianiense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.6% (

35.39% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.84% (

72.15% (

-0)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

49.09% (

-0.02)

50.91% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.72% (

-0.01)

85.28% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Atletico Goianiense 43.53%

Sao Paulo 23.41%

Draw 33.04%

Atletico Goianiense	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 18.71% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.56% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.37% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.27% Other @ 2.9% Total : 43.53%	0-0 @ 18.01% 1-1 @ 12.63% 2-2 @ 2.22% ( -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 33.04%	0-1 @ 12.16% 1-2 @ 4.27% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.11% ( -0) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0) 0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.41%