With Sao Paulo so strong at home and Santos particularly impotent when playing away, there should be only one outcome at Morumbi. Although the visitors finally managed to find their goalscoring touch last week, they will be unable to cope with a step-up in class on Sunday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 65.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Santos had a probability of 12.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.24%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
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