Form often goes out of the window in tense derby matches, but with neither side showing much of late, this game could go the distance. A repeat of last season's cup tie which went to penalties is a real possibility, and Sao Paulo will hope to win in the lottery of the shootout again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 50.8%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 24.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.

Result
Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
50.8% ( -0.05)	24.42% ( 0)	24.77% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 53.39% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.47% (

0.02)

48.53% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.34% (

0.02)

70.65% (

-0.02)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.89% (

-0.02)

19.11% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.26% (

-0.02)

50.73% (

0.02)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.01% (

0.05)

33.99% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.33% (

0.05)

70.66% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Palmeiras 50.79%

Sao Paulo 24.77%

Draw 24.42%

Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 10.74% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.3% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.91% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.86% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.18% Other @ 3.1% Total : 50.79%	1-1 @ 11.6% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.42%	0-1 @ 7.01% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 24.77%