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Copa do Brasil | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Jul 5, 2023 at 11.30pm UK
Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
P

Sao Paulo
1 - 0
Palmeiras

Rafinha (82')
Maia (44'), Neves (44'), David (90+3'), Rato (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mayke (87'), Gomez (90+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Sao Paulo 1-1 Palmeiras

We can see Tuesday's showdown being a close-fought battle between two fierce rivals, with both sides expected to settle for a draw ahead of a pivotal second leg later this month. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 48.25%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.

Result
Sao PauloDrawPalmeiras
48.25% (0.043999999999997 0.04) 25.41% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02) 26.34% (-0.025000000000002 -0.03)
Both teams to score 51.78% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.63% (0.045000000000002 0.05)51.37% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.81% (0.037000000000003 0.04)73.19% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.7% (0.037999999999997 0.04)21.3% (-0.035 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.75% (0.057000000000002 0.06)54.25% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Palmeiras Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.79% (0.0010000000000048 0)34.21% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.1% (0.0019999999999989 0)70.9% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Score Analysis
    Sao Paulo 48.24%
    Palmeiras 26.34%
    Draw 25.41%
Sao PauloDrawPalmeiras
1-0 @ 11.26% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.35% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.71% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 4.82% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.49% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.58% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.86% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.74% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 48.24%
1-1 @ 12.08% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.29% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.01% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 0.92% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 25.41%
0-1 @ 7.82% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.48% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-2 @ 4.19% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.32% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 1.79% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.5% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 26.34%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Sao Paulo 1-0 Fluminense
Saturday, July 1 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-0 Tigre
Wednesday, June 28 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo
Sunday, June 25 at 1am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 2-1 Athletico PR
Wednesday, June 21 at 11pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-2 Palmeiras
Sunday, June 11 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 5-0 Tolima
Thursday, June 8 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
Last Game: Athletico PR 2-2 Palmeiras
Sunday, July 2 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Palmeiras 4-0 Bolivar
Friday, June 30 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Palmeiras 0-1 Botafogo
Sunday, June 25 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras
Thursday, June 22 at 1.30am in Brasileiro
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-2 Palmeiras
Sunday, June 11 at 8pm in Brasileiro
Last Game: Palmeiras 4-2 Barcelona
Thursday, June 8 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores


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