We can see Tuesday's showdown being a close-fought battle between two fierce rivals, with both sides expected to settle for a draw ahead of a pivotal second leg later this month.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 48.25%. A win for Palmeiras had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Palmeiras win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sao Paulo in this match.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
