Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 63.12%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Santos had a probability of 13.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
