Although Hertha have considerably improved in recent weeks, their away form remains extremely poor, and we expect Leverkusen to return to winning ways in the Bundesliga as a result.
Alonso will hope for a dominant first-half performance in order to allow him to rest players before hosting Ferencvaros in the Europa League on Thursday, but the visitors are unlikely to make things that easy for the Spaniard and his side.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 63.99%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 16.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 1-2 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
-0.04) 
0) 
