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Bundesliga | Gameweek 18
Jan 28, 2023 at 2.30pm UK
Olympic Stadium
UB

Hertha Berlin
0 - 2
Union Berlin


Boateng (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Doekhi (44'), Seguin (67')
Khedira (49'), Seguin (90')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hertha Berlin 0-5 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, January 24 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Hertha Berlin 1-3 Union Berlin

Hertha's relative solidity under Schwarz prior to the World Cup appears to have gone out of the window since returning to action last weekend, with disappointing defeats to VfL Bochum and Wolfsburg seeing them drop into the automatic relegation places . As such, we are struggling to see beyond a fifth consecutive victory for Union in the Berlin derby, with Fischer's side looking well set to challenge for a Champions League qualification position once again this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 44.16%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 1-0 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Hertha BerlinDrawUnion Berlin
30.2% (0.073 0.07) 25.64% (0.050000000000001 0.05) 44.16% (-0.122 -0.12)
Both teams to score 53.69% (-0.121 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.9% (-0.173 -0.17)50.09% (0.172 0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.93% (-0.154 -0.15)72.06% (0.15400000000001 0.15)
Hertha Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.39% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)30.61% (0.038 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.15% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)66.84% (0.044999999999987 0.04)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.38% (-0.133 -0.13)22.62% (0.132 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.75% (-0.198 -0.2)56.24% (0.198 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Hertha Berlin 30.2%
    Union Berlin 44.16%
    Draw 25.63%
Hertha BerlinDrawUnion Berlin
1-0 @ 8.2% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
2-1 @ 7.21% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 4.85% (0.024 0.02)
3-1 @ 2.85%
3-2 @ 2.12% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.92% (0.008 0.01)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 30.2%
1-1 @ 12.18% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 6.92% (0.049 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.36% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.05% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.63%
0-1 @ 10.29% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
1-2 @ 9.05% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 7.65% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.49% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 3.79% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.66% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.67% (-0.016 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.41% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.99% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 44.16%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 0-5 Wolfsburg
Tuesday, January 24 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: VfL Bochum 3-1 Hertha Berlin
Saturday, January 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 2-0 FC Koln
Saturday, November 12 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 2-1 Hertha Berlin
Tuesday, November 8 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 2-3 Bayern
Saturday, November 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 1-0 Hertha Berlin
Friday, October 28 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 1-2 Union Berlin
Wednesday, January 25 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 3-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, January 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 4-1 Union Berlin
Sunday, November 13 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 2-2 Augsburg
Wednesday, November 9 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 5-0 Union Berlin
Sunday, November 6 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union SG 0-1 Union Berlin
Thursday, November 3 at 8pm in Europa League


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