Hoffenheim have won both home matches with Mainz winning all three away, so something has to give here. With very little to split these two sides, we would not be surprised if both of those winning runs come to an end in the form of a share of the spoils on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 51.33%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.

Result
Hoffenheim	Draw	Mainz 05
51.33%	23.42%	25.24% ( 0)

Both teams to score 57.19% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.25% (

-0)

43.75% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.86% (

-0)

66.14% (

Hoffenheim Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.9% (

-0)

17.1% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.71% (

-0)

47.29% (

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.98% (

-0)

31.02% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.67% (

-0)

67.33% (

Score Analysis

Hoffenheim 51.33%

Mainz 05 25.24%

Draw 23.42%

Hoffenheim	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.68% 1-0 @ 9.37% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.27% 3-1 @ 5.7% 3-0 @ 4.87% 3-2 @ 3.34% 4-1 @ 2.52% 4-0 @ 2.15% 4-2 @ 1.47% Other @ 3.96% Total : 51.33%	1-1 @ 10.96% 2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.3% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.3% Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.42%	1-2 @ 6.42% 0-1 @ 6.21% 0-2 @ 3.63% 1-3 @ 2.5% 2-3 @ 2.21% 0-3 @ 1.42% ( 0) Other @ 2.85% Total : 25.24%