Five of the last six domestic contests between these sides at Westfalenstadion have been decided by a goal or fewer, and we anticipate a close game between two teams who have usually been able to be pretty tidy at the back.
Dortmund will have a slight edge because of their resilience after losing a home fixture, plus their overall experience and quality seems to be just a little greater than their opponents.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.49%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 20.93% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 1-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (5.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Borussia Dortmund.
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