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Bundesliga | Gameweek 5
Sep 2, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Signal Iduna Park
HL

Dortmund
1 - 0
Hoffenheim

Reus (16')
Reus (57'), Bellingham (57'), Hummels (76')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Skov (35'), Vogt (57'), Kabak (64'), Kramaric (80')

We said: Borussia Dortmund 1-0 Hoffenheim

Five of the last six domestic contests between these sides at Westfalenstadion have been decided by a goal or fewer, and we anticipate a close game between two teams who have usually been able to be pretty tidy at the back. Dortmund will have a slight edge because of their resilience after losing a home fixture, plus their overall experience and quality seems to be just a little greater than their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.49%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 20.93% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 1-0 (7.63%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (5.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Borussia Dortmund.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawHoffenheim
58.49% (0.0080000000000027 0.01) 20.58% (0.0019999999999989 0) 20.93% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Both teams to score 61.57% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.58% (-0.021999999999991 -0.02)35.42% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.54% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)57.46% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.05% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)11.95% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.66% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)37.34% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Hoffenheim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.93% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)30.07% (0.020999999999997 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.8% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)66.2% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 58.49%
    Hoffenheim 20.93%
    Draw 20.58%
Borussia DortmundDrawHoffenheim
2-1 @ 9.74% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 8.11% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.63% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.9% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 5.74% (0.0029999999999992 0)
3-2 @ 4.15% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 3.66% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 3.05% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 2.2% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
5-1 @ 1.56%
5-0 @ 1.3%
5-2 @ 0.94% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 58.49%
1-1 @ 9.17% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-2 @ 5.86% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 3.59% (0.004 0)
3-3 @ 1.66% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 20.58%
1-2 @ 5.51% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 4.32% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 2.6%
2-3 @ 2.35% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
1-3 @ 2.21% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 1.04%
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 20.93%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Hertha Berlin 0-1 Dortmund
Saturday, August 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-3 Werder Bremen
Saturday, August 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 1-3 Dortmund
Friday, August 12 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-0 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, August 6 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 1-1 Antalyaspor
Saturday, July 30 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: 1860 Munich 0-3 Dortmund
Friday, July 29 at 7.46pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-0 Augsburg
Saturday, August 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 0-3 Hoffenheim
Saturday, August 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Hoffenheim 3-2 VfL Bochum
Saturday, August 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 3-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, August 6 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Rodinghausen 0-2 Hoffenheim
Sunday, July 31 at 2.31pm in DFB-Pokal
Last Game: Borussia M'bach 5-1 Hoffenheim
Saturday, May 14 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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