With three new signings scoring on debut in Freiburg's 4-0 away win last weekend, we think that they can spring an upset against Dortmund. Streich's side are one of the more upwardly mobile teams in the Bundesliga, while the visitors have a few teething issues and were not particularly impressive despite beating Leverkusen last weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 65.74%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 16.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.63%) and 1-3 (7.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Freiburg win it was 2-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
16.07% ( 0.08)	18.19% ( 0)	65.74% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 60.87% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.91% (

0.15)

32.09% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.33% (

0.18)

53.66% (

-0.18)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67% (

0.19)

32.99% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.42% (

0.21)

69.58% (

-0.21)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.85% (

0.03)

9.15% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.96% (

0.06)

31.04% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 16.07%

Borussia Dortmund 65.74%

Draw 18.19%

Freiburg	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 4.44% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.86% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 16.07%	1-1 @ 8.01% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.02% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.29% Total : 18.19%	1-2 @ 9.57% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.63% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 7.63% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 6.88% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 4.56% ( 0) 2-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 4.11% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 2.53% ( 0.02) 1-5 @ 2.18% ( 0) 0-5 @ 1.97% ( -0.01) 2-5 @ 1.21% ( 0.01) 3-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.08% Total : 65.74%