SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.12%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
58.12% ( 1.01) | 20.64% ( -0.07) | 21.24% ( -0.94) |
| Both teams to score 61.83% ( -1.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.69% ( -0.94) | 35.31% ( 0.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.67% ( -1.05) | 57.33% ( 1.06) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.98% ( -0.01) | 12.02% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.52% ( -0.03) | 37.48% ( 0.04) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.27% ( -1.34) | 29.73% ( 1.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.21% ( -1.67) | 65.79% ( 1.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( 0.37)1-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.35)3-1 @ 6.87% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.25)3-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 3.64% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3% ( 0.13)4-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.51% Total : 58.12% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.17)0-0 @ 3.57% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.3% Total : 20.64% | 1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 4.33% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.07)Other @ 3% Total : 21.24% |
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