SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 41.69%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.74%) and 2-0 (5.14%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
41.69% ( 0.02) | 22.44% ( 0.01) | 35.87% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 67.31% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.8% ( -0.07) | 33.2% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.05% ( -0.08) | 54.95% ( 0.08) |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.31% ( -0.02) | 16.68% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.44% ( -0.04) | 46.56% ( 0.04) |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.79% ( -0.05) | 19.21% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.1% ( -0.07) | 50.9% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
| 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.14% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.06% 3-2 @ 4.18% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.07% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.27% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.37% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 3.5% Total : 41.69% | 1-1 @ 9.47% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.99% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.48% Total : 22.44% | 1-2 @ 7.81% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.36% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.3% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.4% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.77% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0)3-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.58% Total : 35.87% |
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