SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 69.18%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 14.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 1-2 (3.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Werder Bremen |
69.18% ( 0.06) | 16.48% ( -0.01) | 14.34% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 63.25% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.74% ( -0.06) | 27.26% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.18% ( -0.08) | 47.81% ( 0.07) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.81% ( -0) | 7.18% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.9% ( -0.01) | 26.1% ( 0.01) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.15% ( -0.1) | 31.85% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.71% ( -0.12) | 68.29% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Werder Bremen |
| 2-1 @ 9.08% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.97% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 5.25% ( 0)4-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 3% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.76% 5-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.58% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.21% 4-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 3.65% Total : 69.18% | 1-1 @ 6.89% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.37% Total : 16.48% | 1-2 @ 3.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.62% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.5% ( -0)Other @ 2.79% Total : 14.34% |
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