SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.61%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Hoffenheim |
30.73% ( -0.43) | 22.45% ( -0.01) | 46.82% ( 0.45) |
| Both teams to score 65.17% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.83% ( -0.19) | 35.17% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.82% ( -0.21) | 57.18% ( 0.21) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.15% ( -0.34) | 22.85% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.42% ( -0.51) | 56.58% ( 0.52) |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.47% ( 0.09) | 15.53% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.55% ( 0.16) | 44.46% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Hoffenheim |
| 2-1 @ 7.2% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 5.24% ( -0)2-0 @ 3.87% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.54% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.15% Total : 30.73% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.45% | 1-2 @ 9.09% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 6.61% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 5.64% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.82% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 2.63% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.94% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.78% ( 0.04)1-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.08% Total : 46.83% |
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