SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 56.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 19.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Union Berlin in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Union Berlin.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
56.95% ( -0.78) | 23.61% ( 0.38) | 19.44% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 48.96% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.05% ( -1) | 50.95% ( 1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.18% ( -0.88) | 72.82% ( 0.89) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.31% ( -0.64) | 17.69% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.67% ( -1.12) | 48.32% ( 1.13) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.48% ( -0.13) | 40.52% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.88% ( -0.12) | 77.12% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 1-0 @ 12.41% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 5.61% ( -0.15)4-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.43% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.56% Total : 56.94% | 1-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.17) 0-0 @ 7.17% ( 0.28)2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.84% Total : 23.61% | 0-1 @ 6.47% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.13% Total : 19.44% |
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