Champions League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 28, 2021 at 8pm UK

Parc des Princes

PSG
1 - 2
Man City

(Manchester City win 4-1 on aggregate)

Marquinhos (15')
Paredes (70'), Neymar (74')
Gueye (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

De Bruyne (64'), Mahrez (71')
Cancelo (31'), De Bruyne (86')

Kevin De Bruyne: 'Semi-final tie is far from finished'

Pep Guardiola: 'Semi-final tie is far from finished'

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 51.03%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 19.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.23%) and 2-3 (5.47%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Manchester City in this match.

Result
Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Manchester City
29.22%	19.74%	51.03%

Both teams to score 74.71%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

77.48%

22.51%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

58.4%

41.59%

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.73%

17.26%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.41%

47.58%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.3%

9.69%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.68%

32.31%

Score Analysis

Paris Saint-Germain 29.22%

Manchester City 51.03%

Draw 19.74%

Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Manchester City
2-1 @ 6.02% 3-2 @ 4.12% 3-1 @ 3.53% 1-0 @ 2.94% 2-0 @ 2.58% 4-2 @ 1.81% 4-1 @ 1.55% 3-0 @ 1.51% 4-3 @ 1.41% Other @ 3.76% Total : 29.22%	2-2 @ 7.03% 1-1 @ 6.86% 3-3 @ 3.2% 0-0 @ 1.67% Other @ 0.97% Total : 19.74%	1-2 @ 8% 1-3 @ 6.23% 2-3 @ 5.47% 0-2 @ 4.56% 0-1 @ 3.9% 1-4 @ 3.63% 0-3 @ 3.54% 2-4 @ 3.19% 0-4 @ 2.07% 3-4 @ 1.87% 1-5 @ 1.7% 2-5 @ 1.49% 0-5 @ 0.97% Other @ 4.41% Total : 51.03%