SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 60.48%. A draw had a probability of 20% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 19.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.33%) and 1-0 (7.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.91%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
60.48% ( 0.29) | 20.01% ( -0.09) | 19.51% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 61.24% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.21% ( 0.17) | 34.79% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.25% ( 0.19) | 56.75% ( -0.19) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.78% ( 0.13) | 11.22% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.24% ( 0.28) | 35.76% ( -0.28) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.98% ( -0.08) | 31.02% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.67% ( -0.1) | 67.33% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.33% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 7.61% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 4.16% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 3.89% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 2.28% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.7% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.82% Total : 60.48% | 1-1 @ 8.91% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.48% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.62% Other @ 0.29% Total : 20.01% | 1-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.07% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.65% Total : 19.51% |
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