SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 40.02%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-0 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swansea City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cardiff City | Draw | Swansea City |
33.93% ( -0.43) | 26.05% ( 0) | 40.02% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 53.75% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.35% ( -0.07) | 50.65% ( 0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.45% ( -0.06) | 72.55% ( 0.07) |
| Cardiff City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.59% ( -0.3) | 28.41% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.83% ( -0.38) | 64.16% ( 0.39) |
| Swansea City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.08% ( 0.2) | 24.92% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.45% ( 0.27) | 59.55% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cardiff City | Draw | Swansea City |
| 1-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 5.61% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.27% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.71% Total : 33.93% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 8.6% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 3.98% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 3.17% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.61% Total : 40.02% |
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