Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
