Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (11.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Stoke City
33.82%	28.35%	37.82%

Both teams to score 46.6%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.35%

59.65%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.03%

79.97%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.99%

33%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.41%

69.59%

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.56%

30.44%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.36%

66.64%

Score Analysis

Derby County 33.82%

Stoke City 37.81%

Draw 28.34%

Derby County	Draw	Stoke City
1-0 @ 11.13% 2-1 @ 7.34% 2-0 @ 6.17% 3-1 @ 2.71% 3-0 @ 2.28% 3-2 @ 1.61% Other @ 2.57% Total : 33.82%	1-1 @ 13.24% 0-0 @ 10.04% 2-2 @ 4.37% Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.34%	0-1 @ 11.94% 1-2 @ 7.88% 0-2 @ 7.11% 1-3 @ 3.12% 0-3 @ 2.82% 2-3 @ 1.73% 1-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.81%