Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Middlesbrough
30.98%	27.58%	41.43%

Both teams to score 48.1%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.56%

57.44%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.75%

78.25%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.16%

33.84%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.49%

70.51%

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.71%

27.29%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.27%

62.73%

Score Analysis

Derby County 30.98%

Middlesbrough 41.43%

Draw 27.58%

Derby County	Draw	Middlesbrough
1-0 @ 10% 2-1 @ 7.04% 2-0 @ 5.42% 3-1 @ 2.54% 3-0 @ 1.96% 3-2 @ 1.65% Other @ 2.37% Total : 30.98%	1-1 @ 12.99% 0-0 @ 9.24% 2-2 @ 4.57% Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.58%	0-1 @ 11.99% 1-2 @ 8.44% 0-2 @ 7.79% 1-3 @ 3.65% 0-3 @ 3.37% 2-3 @ 1.98% 1-4 @ 1.19% 0-4 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.93% Total : 41.43%