SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 36.69%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
36.69% ( 0.01) | 27.34% ( 0.01) | 35.96% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 49.82% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.26% ( -0.03) | 55.74% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.12% ( -0.02) | 76.88% ( 0.02) |
| Shanghai Shenhua Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.81% ( -0.01) | 29.19% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.86% ( -0.01) | 65.14% ( 0.01) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.36% ( -0.03) | 29.64% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.31% ( -0.03) | 65.68% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 10.65% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.98% 2-0 @ 6.56% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.27% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.54% Total : 36.69% | 1-1 @ 12.95% 0-0 @ 8.65% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.85% ( -0)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.34% | 0-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.4% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.59% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 2.44% Total : 35.96% |
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