SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 53.34%. A win for Wuhan had a probability of 23.35% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Wuhan win was 0-1 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan |
53.34% ( 0.39) | 23.31% ( -0.12) | 23.35% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 55.42% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.91% ( 0.21) | 45.09% ( -0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.56% ( 0.2) | 67.44% ( -0.21) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.14% ( 0.21) | 16.86% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.13% ( 0.38) | 46.87% ( -0.39) |
| Wuhan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.66% ( -0.13) | 33.34% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.04% ( -0.14) | 69.96% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Wuhan |
| 1-0 @ 10% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.91% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.08% Total : 53.34% | 1-1 @ 10.99% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.31% | 0-1 @ 6.17% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.33% Total : 23.35% |
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