SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shenzhen win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 25.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shenzhen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Guangzhou City win was 2-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Shenzhen |
25.78% ( -0.7) | 23.58% ( -0.58) | 50.64% ( 1.28) |
| Both teams to score 57.19% ( 1.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.01% ( 2.02) | 43.99% ( -2.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.63% ( 1.95) | 66.37% ( -1.95) |
| Guangzhou City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.28% ( 0.53) | 30.72% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.02% ( 0.62) | 66.98% ( -0.62) |
| Shenzhen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.56% ( 1.26) | 17.44% ( -1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.1% ( 2.16) | 47.9% ( -2.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guangzhou City | Draw | Shenzhen |
| 2-1 @ 6.52% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 6.32% ( -0.48)2-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.94% Total : 25.78% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.35) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.49)3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.58% | 1-2 @ 9.64% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 9.36% ( -0.44)0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 5.61% ( 0.28)0-3 @ 4.76% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.21)1-4 @ 2.45% ( 0.21)0-4 @ 2.08% ( 0.15)2-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.15)Other @ 3.82% Total : 50.64% |
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