SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shenzhen win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for Guangzhou had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shenzhen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Guangzhou win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shenzhen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Shenzhen | Draw | Guangzhou |
42.25% ( 0.38) | 25.18% ( -0.08) | 32.56% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 56.26% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.78% ( 0.27) | 47.22% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.55% ( 0.25) | 69.45% ( -0.25) |
| Shenzhen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.71% ( 0.3) | 22.29% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.25% ( 0.45) | 55.74% ( -0.45) |
| Guangzhou Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.4% ( -0.06) | 27.6% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.87% ( -0.08) | 63.13% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Shenzhen | Draw | Guangzhou |
| 1-0 @ 9.23% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.46% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 3.47% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.87% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 42.26% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 7.65% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.47% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.9% Total : 32.56% |
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