The deficit is manageable for Palestra, but we have difficulty believing a team as well-drilled and consistent as Mengao would crumble as they have not lost by multiple goals all year.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 30.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Palmeiras in this match.
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