We anticipate this match will go down to the wire with neither side giving an inch, and if so it could be decided by a test of who has a stronger mettle. There are good arguments for each side to win, but ultimately, we are choosing Palestra, who look hungrier than ever to win everything possible, and they always seem to find another level in these big matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 55.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 21.55%.

The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 2-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.

Result
Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
55.65% ( 3.53)	22.8% ( -1.15)	21.55% ( -2.38)

Both teams to score 54.7% (

0.71)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.09% (

2.4)

44.9% (

-2.4)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.74% (

2.27)

67.26% (

-2.27)

Palmeiras Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.01% (

2.15)

15.98% (

-2.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.71% (

3.8)

45.29% (

-3.81)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.11% (

-0.84)

34.89% (

0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.37% (

-0.9)

71.63% (

0.89)

Score Analysis

Palmeiras 55.64%

Sao Paulo 21.55%

Draw 22.79%

Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 10.22% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 9.38% ( 0.38) 3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.52) 3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.61) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.41) 4-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.44) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.19) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.21) 5-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.22) Other @ 2.41% Total : 55.64%	1-1 @ 10.76% ( -0.59) 0-0 @ 5.58% ( -0.6) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.79%	0-1 @ 5.87% ( -0.78) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.45) 0-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.49) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.21) 2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.02% Total : 21.55%