This looks like a fairly even match, and we expect the opening leg to play out that way between two sound defensive units, but no one having a decisive edge. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.

Result
Atletico Mineiro	Draw	River Plate
41.51% ( -0.02)	27.5% ( 0.01)	30.99% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 48.34% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.86% (

-0.02)

57.14% (

0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.99% (

-0.02)

78.01% (

0.02)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.89% (

-0.02)

27.11% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.51% (

-0.03)

62.49% (

0.03)

River Plate Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.32% (

-0)

33.68% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.67% (

-0)

70.34% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Atletico Mineiro 41.5%

River Plate 30.99%

Draw 27.5%

Atletico Mineiro	Draw	River Plate
1-0 @ 11.91% 2-1 @ 8.47% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.78% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.68% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.1% ( -0) Other @ 1.97% Total : 41.5%	1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.13% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.5%	0-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.06% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.56% 0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0) Other @ 2.4% Total : 30.99%