Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 34.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.01) 
