Despite winning on penalties in the cup in midweek, Athletico PR's defeat in normal time was their fourth successive loss, and we expect the visitors to smell blood this weekend.
Castro's side have won seven of their eight league games so far this season, and we can envisage them making that record eight from nine to potentially further increase their lead at the top of Serie A.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 45.5%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletico Paranaense in this match.
0.34) 
-0.86) 
